NewsNY Fed Survey: Job Worries Rise, Inflation Stays High
Americans surveyed in October became more concerned about rising unemployment, even as their confidence in finding another job improved. Inflation expectations held steady, according to a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York report.
This is a source-linked desk explainer, not first-hand reporting. Research and drafting may use AI-assisted tools. Follow the cited source links and read our editorial and corrections policy.
This is a source-linked desk explainer, not first-hand reporting. Research and drafting may use AI-assisted tools. See our editorial and corrections policy.
Representative licensed photograph of an office conversation, not a photo of survey respondents or a Federal Reserve announcement. Photographer: Edmond Dantès / Pexels.
What did the October 2026 New York Fed survey find?
Households expressed greater concern about the overall job market. The mean perceived probability of a higher U.S. unemployment rate one year ahead rose 1.4 percentage points, from 43.9% in September to 45.3% in October. The New York Fed said the increase was driven by respondents without a college degree. The survey covered October 1–31, before its November 9 release.
Yet respondents were not uniformly pessimistic. The mean perceived probability of losing one's own job over the next 12 months rose just 0.4 point to 13.9%, below the trailing 12-month average of 14.3%. The reported chance of finding a job after losing one increased to 46.5%, the highest since November 2025. This difference matters: concern about national unemployment is not the same as expecting to lose your own job.
Inflation expectations: what stayed the same?
Median expected inflation was unchanged from September at 3.9% over one year, 3.3% over three years, and 3.0% over five years. These are consumers' perceptions of future price growth, not the latest measured Consumer Price Index, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation reading, or an official rate forecast.
| Measure | October | Change from September |
|---|---|---|
| Higher unemployment in 12 months (mean probability) | 45.3% | +1.4 percentage points |
| Personal job loss in 12 months (mean probability) | 13.9% | +0.4 percentage point |
| Finding a job after job loss (mean probability) | 46.5% | +0.4 percentage point |
| One-year inflation expectation (median) | 3.9% | Unchanged |
| Three-year inflation expectation (median) | 3.3% | Unchanged |
| Five-year inflation expectation (median) | 3.0% | Unchanged |
Why does this matter for workers and households?
People can simultaneously worry that unemployment will rise nationally and feel more able to find a new position if they personally need one. The October survey shows exactly that split. For a household weighing a job change, the survey is useful context about confidence, but it cannot establish local hiring prospects, an individual's job security, or the likelihood of a layoff at a specific employer.
For household budgets, the persistence of elevated inflation expectations suggests respondents still anticipate price increases. The New York Fed also reported that median expected household income growth edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. Neither number tells a reader what their next paycheck or grocery bill will be.
Does the report mean the Fed will raise interest rates?
No rate decision is contained in this survey. Federal Reserve policymakers consider many indicators, including actual employment and inflation data. Reuters' November 9 independent report placed the survey alongside recent official labor-market figures and expectations for the December meeting. Market expectations are not policy commitments.
Readers following broader financial conditions can also consult our existing 2027 federal tax bracket guide for a separate, officially announced household-planning change. Taxes and consumer inflation expectations are different subjects; the tax guide is not evidence for the Fed survey.
How was the survey conducted, and what happens next?
The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is an internet-based, nationally representative rotating panel of household heads. It measures expectations, not actual outcomes. Month-to-month differences should be read with the survey methodology and sampling uncertainty in mind. The New York Fed release calendar lists the next regular survey update for December 7, 2026.
For readers comparing changes over time, the September survey release documented the preceding 43.9% unemployment reading and 46.1% job-finding reading. This makes October's mixed signal clearer than a headline about job anxiety alone.
Sources and verification
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — October 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, November 9 release
- New York Fed — September 2026 survey for comparison
- Reuters — independent November 9 coverage
- New York Fed — survey release calendar
Published November 9, 2026. This article distinguishes household perceptions from measured economic conditions and is not personalized employment or investment advice.